Poetry in motion: Zahra’s call puts Banjo’s theory to the test
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“And, remember, of judges of racing, the jockey’s the absolute worst.”
The advice of Banjo Paterson has buoyed me with Gold Trip in the Melbourne Cup. Mark Zahra, for whom Gold Trip goes so well and won the corresponding staying test last year, has sacked him for Without A Fight on the grounds of his choice being better suited on what looks like being a firm Flemington surface on Tuesday.
However Corey Brown, the former hoop successful twice in the Melbourne Cup, reckoned in the Hoof On The Till podcast that Zahra was “clutching at straws”. Brown said Gold Trip had been performing well in recent races on grass “without much cut”.
Perhaps history will provide better chapters of Australia’s most popular race but none that have had so many world-class jockeys at their peak, which is obviously a relevant factor in finding the winner.
I’m comfortable enough with James McDonald, who has picked up the ride on Gold Trip and who Brown is tipping to become “Australia’s Frankie Dettori” (overall, that is, not in the Melbourne Cup – hardly Frankie’s happy hunting ground).
My major reasons for Gold Trip? He is a proven Flemington metric two-miler, and I was awed by his acceleration on the course to take the Turnbull Stakes three starts back. The stallion’s subsequent two races were foundations for today. I gamble against international raiders on top because I haven’t seen them up close and personal.
Gold Trip is aiming to defend his Melbourne Cup title.Credit: Penny Stephens
Bookmaker and turf form student Rob Waterhouse gives outsider Kalapour a chance behind Without A Fight on top from Gold Trip but will lay the favourite Vauban.
Waterhouse is negative towards the Irish stayer, which cost him dearly when he scored earlier this year at Royal Ascot where he was one of 270 bookmakers fielding for much fewer than the 72,000 that attended Flemington on Derby Day.
“We are told Vauban is working brilliantly since arriving, but I can recall around five visitors that came here previously for the Cup with a similar boom but didn’t race up to it.
“Obviously, the Caulfield Cup winner Without A Fight and Gold Trip are hard to beat, but Kalapour has a chance,” he added.
“Yes, I’m aware Saturday horses [those that raced three days before the Cup] are no longer fashionable, but Kalapour has appealing aspects and is $46.”
Gold Trip and Mark Zahra take out the last year’s Melbourne Cup.Credit: Justin McManus
Odds are important with any race, and Dan O’Sullivan, whose opinion is always worth noting, suggested on Racing.com that Vauban at $3.70 or better was acceptable, as was his stablemate Absurde’s $6.50, then Without A Fight at $7, and Gold Trip at $7.50.
Tactics, though, are vital over the 3200 metres, and the usually acerbic “Bundamba Slim” is enthusiastic about the navigator expertise this year.
“Joao Moreira has been burning up the tracks in Japan, Ryan Moore recently won the Breeder’s Cup in the United States, and Zac Purton keeps scoring in Hong Kong,” he explained.
“And look at James McDonald here recently. He’s like Jim Cassidy: knows where the post is, gets their nose down in time. Winning the Derby on Saturday and Cox Plate showed he is a bob-of-the-heads specialist.”
On the Racing and Sports jockey ratings for the Melbourne Cup, Moore is on 4.3 (out of 5) with Zahra. J-Mac is on 3.9, and Moreira is on top with 4.4.
Moreira’s sleight of hand could figure for a Slim fancy, Soulcombe, which has had a period of non-achievement due to what appears to be dozing in the barrier but will have the magic of Moreira to trigger him early when the gates open.
Melbourne Cup systems abound, and Max Hitchens has worked one that reduces the field down to six chances and has been successful in 27 out of the last 34 years.
“I don’t finalise my selections until 7.30am on Cup morning, but Vauban is looking pretty darned good to me,” he said.
But one system always triumphed.
“My mother-in-law backed every horse in the race to say she was on the winner,” Hitchens (not Paterson) said.
Verdict: Gold Trip from Without A Fight, with Vauban third and Absurde in the first four.
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