The Daily Telegraph’s form analyst Shayne O’Cass and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances across nine races at Rosehill meeting on Saturday.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
Race 4, No. 2 MORE PROPHETS
Race 3, No. 1 STOCKMAN
Race 5, No. 1 TYCOONIST
Race 9, No. 16 EL COHETE
Race 2, No. 14 MENSENETA
Race 6, No. 7: INANUP
RACE 1: IRONMARK HANDICAP (1100M)
Ron Dufficy: It is hard to take the short odds about Sacred Field but his two trials have been very impressive and he has to be top pick although in saying that, I am expecting a better price. Sonnet Star caught the eye making up many lengths last start after getting into trouble early and she could race closer here. Winning Verse beat Sonnet Star home last start so she fits in well. Colour De Roy looked a much better horse winning first-up at Kembla and is sure to be competitive.
Shayne O’Cass: Even-money on debut from the outside alley about Sacred Field and that was on Wednesday That said, he has trialled like a horse that has a lot of talent and he is beautifully bred too being a grandson of the Doncaster and Myer Classic winner, Sacred Choice. Conexy reminds me a lot of Japonisme, Duff. I love Conexy’s attitude. No matter what barrier or track condition that are thrown at her, she turns up and has a dig.
RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1400M)
Dufficy: This is one of those very open Highways. I know she is nowhere near as well weighted this week but Don’tforgetnmonica was very dominant winning last time and although she has no claim here, I just think maps better than most and is sure to run well. It was easy work for Manseneta winning at Grafton and he’s had a nice tick-over trial since. Tommy Berry takes the ride and it looks a target race for him. Statesville would have been top pick from a better draw. I like the form-lines he comes out off and Charlton Park has been very good in two runs this prep but also has to contend with that wide draw.
O’Cass: I’m with Manseneta for those four reasons you just outlined Duff; last start winner, nice trial since, Tommy Berry, target race. Barrier 2 is an absolute blessing for the former Godolphin galloper. Like you, I would have more than likely had Statesville on top had he not drawn so wide but it’s Randwick not Canterbury so not prepared to concede defeat yet. More Sundays and Mr Wong are the ‘chargers’.
RACE 3: TAYLOR CONSTRUCTIONS HANDICAP (2400M)
Dufficy: I am pretty keen on Stockman. He just comes way back in grade here; he backs up from last week, and the soft track suits him. He just got too far back last week. No Compromise looks the main danger. He captured everyone’s attention by making up a stack of ground at his first Aussie start and giving the impression that 2400m is no problem. Although she hasn’t been tried at the distance, I think Maid Of Ore is going terrific. She sat on that hot speed at Wagga and I thought she stuck on very well.
O’Cass: Is this an early hat trick for Tommy Berry, Duff? Tipping J-Mac is hoping not. Berry has the ride on Chris Waller’s NZ recruit No Compromise here. No one missed the Australian debut in that 2000m race. Up to 2400m, being out of a Galileo mare with User Friendly no less as his third dam, he’s got to eat it up. Stockman has got to shoulder 60kg for a mile and a half and potentially have to run past at least half the field in the straight. Hats off to him if he can do it.
Ron Dufficy is keen on Stockman who is backing up from last week and drops in grade. Photo: Mark Metcalfe/Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images
RACE 4: SPORTING CHANCE CANCER FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1400m)
Dufficy: I know she is probably not as well weighted as a few others but I am pretty keen on More Prophets. She is a good genuine mare and she was in the worst part of the track there at Scone and any luck from a sticky draw here she will be hard to beat. Bright Rubick gets in very light in comparison to More Prophets and is not the worst at odds here. Vitesse goes forward and tried hard and will run a race. Snippy Fox has his foot on the till after three solid placings in town of late.
O’Cass: Concur with all that vis-a-vie More Prophets. She just does not run bad races. Interested to see the flucs with Strawb. She is the one with x-factor in the line-up. I like her being out in barrier 10, now she will almost have to come to the outside and I fancy she is better when she is out there on her own. Looks a good quinella, exacta race to me.
RACE 5: WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT HANDICAP (1200M)
Dufficy: Bit of a guess here for me but I like Tycoonist at value. It’s a tough race but I thought he did well in a harder race going into that first-up run without a trial, so I just think he is the value runner. Nags To Riches continues to improve and finds a good spot on the map and will run well again. You had to like the way Bravado savaged the line winning at Scone and Sixgun looks a horse with upside who has appeared to have returned pretty well.
O’Cass: I thought the same thing about Tycoonist when I looked at the TAB Fixed Odds markets on Wednesday. I couldn’t see how he was $19. At that price, there were only four horses of the 14 that were longer than him. That’s not right. That said, I am with the one that they backed early, Sixgun. He has come back well as you say. The Black Book horse might end up being Game Theory.
RACE 6: FUJITSU GENERAL HANDICAP (1100M)
Dufficy: I think it is a two-horse race with the track conditions vital here. At this stage I am leaning to Marway who was just brilliant at Wagga. I don’t think coming back in distance is too much of an issue with a speed horse like him but still you would like to see him get control. If the tracks stay Soft 6 or worse, I could easily switch to Wandabaa. The jar out of the track suits her and she loves Randwick. Adelong is very fit and won’t be far away. Enchanted Heart is in good form and has that great winning strike-rate.
O’Cass: Going to chance the arm on Inanup Duff. He is a somewhat underrated sprinter, I liked him in the XXXX Rush at Hawkesbury – granted he was shade underwhelming but he has trialled super since. Southern Lad has such compelling numbers and I say he was unlucky in Marway’s Town Plate just the way the track played during the carnival.
April Rain will be improved by her first-up run. Photo: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph
RACE 7: NSW M AND H AIR HANDICAP (1300M)
Dufficy:April Rain is getting in short enough now but she should improve second-up here and does look a mare of some quality. She gets enough speed up front and I think she just needed the run first-up. Canasta is trialling well and is sure to sprint well fresh. I am going to keep an eye on Knight who has turned in two very nice trials coming into this race and finds a good spot. The horse that finished Knight in the trial, Greek Hero, is having his first run for the new stable and if he puts his mind on things, he does have some talent.
O’Cass:April Rain will be an anchor for some or a lay for the really brave. I think she is somewhere in between that actually – she is way too short as a betting proposition IMO in a full field I have to stress. Put it this way, Greek Hero was $14 the win and $3.40 the place up against an odds-on pop, second-up with 59kg.
RACE 8: PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400M)
Dufficy: He is not usually one of mine but I think True Detective is beautifully weighted here. He showed good improvement second-up, he needs luck as he always does, but if he does bet any, he is going to be there to pounce at the right time. Brutality, with that form behind Brandenburg and Nudge, stands out here now. He needs it to stay wet obviously but he will race well. Asiago just gets on-pace favours and should be in the finish. Likewise with Lina’s Hero who has been kept for this and maps perfectly with no weight.
O’Cass:Military Zone’s last win was exactly two years ago now, the Fred Best up in Queensland. OK, it’s been a long time between drinks but the horse has been dogged by wet tracks, bad luck, no tempo at times, track bias – all that kind of thing. But make no mistake, he showed a glimpse of his old self when he ran so well behind Lost And Running in the Luskin Star and that’s Everest form. Dealmaker was good in that same race and will be fitter again. Royal Celebration has a second to The Autumn Sun at this track and distance.
Ron Dufficy gives Hulk a chance in the final event after a strong first-up run. Photo: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph
RACE 9: UPHIRE HANDICAP (1100M)
Dufficy: Happy to give Hulk another chance. There is some query as to whether he is as effective second-up as he is first-up but he was excellent after getting a mile back from that bad draw last time and hopefully can race closer from a better draw. Belluci Babe finished alongside Hulk last start and meets him two kilos better. Malkovich has been flying at the trials and he might be hard to catch in a race like this. Lillemor usually sprints well fresh and she has had a couple of trials to fit her up for this.
O’Cass: I’m not the best speed mapper ever born Duff but even I can see this is going to be run fast if horses like Malkovich, Bulletin, Jailbreak, Belluci Babe, Lillemor all show up on the day. Henceforth I went looking for the swooper who might, to use one of your phrases Duff, ambush them late and came up with El Cohete who also qualifies for racing’s best system – Joe Pride in the last. Seriously though, I have a hunch the horse is flying. He’s good odds to find out one way or another.
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
Race 1 No. 2: BRIARS KINGDOM
Sent out all the right signs that a win is imminent when a closing third here on debut two weeks ago.
Race 4 No. 6: READATHON
Gwenda Markwell trained mare who comes off an easy 2000m win here a fortnight ago. In the zone and can win again.
Race 3 No. 6: HIGH TRIBUTE
Considerably better than what she showed at Wyong first-up. Runner-up to Mr Gee at her only prior visit here.
Race 4: 6
Race 5: 5,6,8,9
Race 6: 1,6
Race 7: 3,8
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Blaike McDougall is a man in demand anywhere he goes and it is no different here with a crackerjack book of rides.
Race 6 No. 6: SECRET DISCLOSURE
Locally trained son of the Horse of the Year, Dissident, on debut. Drawn out but the trial was just too good to tip against her.
Race 2 No 5: POURING RAIN
Came from off the speed to post an impressive debut win on the Riverside track back in December. Market the best guide again.
Race 1 No. 3: NEWITT
Hasn’t done much wrong at all in his six starts and won’t get a better opportunity than this one.
Race 3 No. 6: JAZIRAT
Dynamic Syndications mare who is better than these; she just has to run the mile on a heavy track first-up that’s all.
Originally published asShayne and Duff: Mare to provide a tidy Prophet
Source: Read Full Article