The conditions in Melbourne have deteriorated to a soft 6 as at 7am Saturday morning but thankfully the detailed forecast suggests the worst has past and thankfully nothing of note is predicted after racing is due to commence at 12:15. That said it is Melbourne!
The inside will be questionable later in the day and as I noted yesterday in The Friday Line outside 10m, where very few horses should really come, will be inferior after Wednesday.
I suggested a bet on Finche yesterday and while I’m sticking I certainly don’t want it to deteriorate any further for him, but he should be fine with the soft 6. Otherwise the picture in my mind remains the same. Dalasan will eat up the wet track and his winning chances are now likely to be slightly enhanced.
RANDWICK – Race 3
The recommended bet on Purple Sector from yesterday still looks a fantastic play particularly at the $6.50 quote (now top price $5.50). I am going to add an investment on Just Thinkin’ who I also mentioned. The favourable map and added stamina he is carrying having dropped back from 2000m to 1600m makes him an enticing secondary play in the race.
Other notable races
CAULFIELD – Race 5
One of four three-year-old races on the program the Ethereal is a traditional lead up to the VRC Oaks and the majority of these runners clashed in the Edward Manifold 14 days ago.
The betting and result that day certainly seems at odds with the betting for today’s race.
Starelle heavily outperformed market expectations based on the Betfair SP ($32) from the Manifold and the market has got a good hold on her today. Reviewing the video would help explain this result where Starelle had an unfettered run up the straight while SUCCEED INDEED, and to a lesser extent Silhouette were cluttered up among runners.
If they all had clear running I feel that the expected margin might have been a better indicator. Therefore, based on this theory the market has heavily over-estimated the run of Starelle and she should be much longer than the current quote when we consider just this cohort of runners.
The clear value in this “SP Profile” measure is Succeed Indeed, who was $7.80 on the BFSP. Starelle did start shorter than Succeed Indeed two runs back with a 2.5kg (before apprentice claim) advantage, which does help put some context to the variance.
Chica Fuerte also has plenty of merit given she was well backed in the Manifold with a BFSP of $9 and she did have the luxury run but holds some value at the current price.
CAULFIELD – Race 6
FITEUSE stands out in this race as significant value. She returned close to her career peak a month back and comes into this race with the perfect map. This is her first time to Melbourne which provides some uncertainty particularly when compared to her closest rival in California Zimbol who won at Caulfield in Group 3 company last Spring. Not sure she will be heavily bet but anything bigger than $2 is value.
RANDWICK – Race 6
The Everest ‘Consolation’ Sydney Stakes presents an interesting field. Deprive went well first up and there has been plenty of talk about it being unlucky to miss an Everest slot. He does appear to be very short now compared with my $4 quote.
There is a bit of depth to the race. Standout was ridden far too close last start settling second when he would normally be no better than midfield which is where I expect him to settle today. The best value for me is PRIME CANDIDATE. He led them up and won his last start over 1400m in a new PB.
He drops back to 1200m and takes a big jump in class so the WFA conditions are a big impediment against him however that said he is $15 and will quite possibly be longer throughout the day so a small investment at those odds provides plenty of reward for risk.
RANDWICK – Race 9
BRIMHAM ROCKS comes into this race off a forgive run in the Metropolitan where he was trapped wide the entirety and still plugged home to be beaten 4-1/4 lengths. Paths Of Glory had the much easier run and beat Brimham Rocks home by 0.3L.
She was advantaged by an extra 1kg pull in the weights as compared to today and there will likely be no advantage in run. The set weights conditions benefits Brimham Rocks who should be giving all his rivals extra weight bar the topweight Wu Gok. I expect the money to come for Brimham Rocks and the current $4.40 represents strong value.
Check out the PRO PUNTER FRIDAY LINE early assessment of the Caulfield Cup and The Everest
THE SATURDAY LINE BETS
Caulfield Race 1 No.3 – Power Scheme* (Rated price $2.20 – Price taken $3.30) – 19 units
Caulfield Race 5 No.4 – Succeed Indeed ($4.50 – $6.50) – 9 units
Caulfield Race 6 No.3 – Fituese ($2.10 – $2.50) – 20 units
Caulfield Race 9 No.9 – Finche* ($7 – $13) – 6 units
Caulfield Race 9 No.14 – Dalasan* ($13 – $17) – 4 units
Randwick Race 3 No.2 – Just Thinkin’ ($6.50 – $7.50) – 7 units
Randwick Race 3 No. 9 – Purple Sector* ($3.50 – $6.50) – 12 units
Randwick Race 6 No.9 – Prime Candidate ($10 – $15) – 4 units
Randwick race 6 No.9 – Prime Candidate (Place) ($2.80 – $3.60) – 4 units
Randwick Race 9 No.2 – Brimham Rocks ($3 – $4.40) – 15 units
*Bets taken yesterday
Originally published asThe Pro Punter Saturday Line
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