Patriots vs. Bills odds, line: Monday Night Football expert picks, predictions from data scientist who’s 16-7 on New England games

There are plenty of headlines leading up to Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. Patriots running back Sony Michel is inactive with a knee injury, leaving James White and Kenjon Barner to shoulder the load. Wide receiver Josh Gordon is active, but will reportedly be disciplined for being late to team activities this week. Bills running back LeSean McCoy is active after clearing the concussion protocol, and under center for Buffalo will be Derek Anderson, who will start in place of Josh Allen for the second straight week. New England is favored by 13.5 points in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds, the largest spread of Week 8, and the over-under for total points scored stands at 44.5. Before you make any Patriots vs. Bills picks, see what SportsLine’s Stephen Oh has to say.

A renowned data scientist who co-founded Accuscore, Oh has an uncanny beat on the Patriots. In his last 23 picks involving New England, against the spread or on the money line, Oh has been correct 16 times. Anyone who has followed him is way up. Now, Oh has crunched the numbers for Patriots vs. Bills and produced a strong point-spread pick that he’s revealing only at SportsLine.

The Patriots’ offense has really picked it up after a subpar start to the season. The defending AFC champions averaged 19 points in their first three games, but in the last four are putting up 39.3 ppg. Tom Brady has been relatively consistent, but his weapons have improved, and so too has New England’s prolific offense. Receiver Josh Gordon was added to the team in Week 4, and Julian Edelman returned from suspension in Week 5. The Pats haven’t lost since.

Starting RB Sony Michel won’t play on Monday (knee), but likely replacement James White is already an integral part of the offense. He’s second in the NFL among RBs with 45 receptions and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. New England’s defense, meanwhile, has just nine sacks, but it also has 10 INTs, one off the league lead. Both those numbers could rise dramatically against a Bills offense that has the most INTs in the NFL (12) and third-most sacks allowed (26).

Just because New England is the big favorite to win doesn’t mean it’ll cover. Just ask the Vikings, who were favored by 17 at home in Week 3 when Buffalo demolished them, 27-6. 

The Bills’ pass game ranks last, and veteran QB Anderson, signed off the street two weeks ago, was thrown into the starting lineup last Sunday. He had four turnovers in a 37-5 loss to the Colts, but has an extra week to prepare and learn the gameplan. Plus, he will be at home in a divisional game. 

In the meantime, expect the Bills to lean on the run game and shorten the amount of time the Patriots have the ball. McCoy and Chris Ivory have combined for 454 yards. McCoy has come up big against New England lately, accounting for at least 100 yards from scrimmage the last five meetings. 

Buffalo’s defense may be the unit that puts the clamps on New England. The Bills allow just 210 yards passing per game, fourth in the NFL. They have 19 sacks, led by Jerry Hughes’ 4.5, and in the last three weeks held Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson and Marcus Mariota to 154 yards passing on average.

We can tell you Oh is leaning under, but his stronger play is against the spread. An alarming stat has caused him to pounce on one side. He’s sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.

Who covers in Patriots vs. Bills? And what alarming stats make one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to be all over, all from the data-driven New England expert who’s 16-7 on picks involving the Patriots.

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