Super Bowl Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under, player props picks

The Super Bowl is just two days away, but there’s still plenty of time to throw some money down on what should be the most heavily-bet sporting event in history. Bettors far and wide are looking at the defending-champion Chiefs and the new-look Buccaneers and picking apart the 20 weeks that led to this matchup. Everyone will be looking for angles, whether they bet against the spread, on the moneyline, or on the over/under totals (or player props!).

Every week of the 2020 NFL season, this column has provided a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in an extended preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere glimpse of all that BetQL offers. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for the Super Bowl, including projections, player props, and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model.

Last round, I went three-for-three with my Best Bets, thanks in large part to the abundant resources at my disposal on Keep reading to see my Best Bets for Super Bowl Sunday, and finish the NFL season in style by making some cash with me.

All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

SUPER BOWL DFS: Top values | FanDuel | DraftKings

Super Bowl Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Betting on Tom Brady and the Bucs +3.5 worked out so well for me in Green Bay two weeks ago, I’m doubling down. Now, Tampa Bay currently sits +3, so you will have to buy the half-point (making it -130 instead of EVEN), but I think it’s the best play you can make against the spread.

I’m not confident the Buccaneers will win the game outright because Patrick Mahomes and his weapons have seemingly proven themselves too dominant to outscore. Hell, Mahomes has just one loss over his past 26 starts. However, I am confident that Brady can orchestrate a close game, especially considering the Bucs are the first team in Super Bowl history to play the big game in their home stadium.

Just look at the remarkable feats both short and long-term by Brady. If you include his three playoff games, nobody has passed for more gross yards since the 2020 NFL season kicked off (5,493). His 47 total passing TDs in that span trails only Aaron Rodgers, and he has an NFL-leading 28 passing TDs in away/neutral games. That last stat doesn’t play, since the big game is at Raymond James, but it does illustrate how healthy his clutch gene remains at 43 years young. Oh, and there’s also the fact that he has six Super Bowl rings in nine appearances. Even his biggest critics should agree at this point: He’s the G.O.A.T.

Even if Brady does not earn his seventh Lombardi Trophy, he has the offensive weapons to keep the Bucs close. He has Chris Godwin, who has emerged as his favorite receiver, with 28 catches and five touchdowns on 49 targets in Tampa’s past six games. He has Mike Evans, one of the tallest and strongest wideouts in football, whose 13 TDs helped keep Brady in the top seven in the NFL in red-zone TD percentage (68.9 percent). And he has Leonard Fournette, aka “Playoff Lenny,” who has been the offensive story of this squad throughout the postseason.

Fournette became Tampa Bay’s starting running back in Week 15, and he never looked back. He has six total touchdowns in that six-week span, and one score in each of the Bucs’ three playoff games. He averages 104.3 yards from scrimmage in those playoff wins, and he has caught 14 of 17 postseason passes for 102 yards.

But let’s not focus completely on Tampa’s offense. This Bucs defense has been absolutely stellar, especially two weeks ago in Green Bay. Despite Brady throwing three interceptions on three consecutive offensive possessions, Todd Bowles’ guys kept shutting down Aaron Rodgers. With linebacker Devin White everywhere on the field, Lavonte David stuffing the run, and an experienced defensive line wreaking havoc on the pocket, this team should never be counted out. If Jamel Dean and Tampa’s safeties can keep Tyreek Hill from doing what he did to the Bucs earlier in the season (13-of-15 for 269 yards and three TDs), my money’s on Kansas City winning by three points.

The BetQL NFL Best Bet Model projects things to be even closer. The Model strongly recommends taking the underdog, putting a four-star rating on Tampa Bay at +1.5 after arriving at a projected final score of 28.5-27 KC. The Model points out an interesting trend: Tampa is 8-1 in all games in which the total is greater than 49.5 points this season. Oddsmakers have listed the over/under at 56, so follow that trend and go with Brady and the Bucs to at least cover. Don’t follow the 53 percent of money (or 58 percent of tickets) — the underdog, with the added insurance of the half-point add-on, is the play of Super Sunday.

Super Bowl Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week

Kansas City Chiefs (-170) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have to go with the Chiefs on the moneyline, even though our BetQL Best Bet Model and I agree that a -170 win-loss bet offers very little value. Of course, some people just hate betting spreads. If you’re one of those people, your best bet is to pick the defending champions to repeat.

Like I said in the divisional round as well as the AFC Championship game, it’s simply impossible to pick against Kansas City on the moneyline. Patrick Mahomes is a wizard with the football, doing things we never thought possible. He’s one of the more dominating players in NFL history. Even better, he has the fastest, most explosive wideout in football in Tyreek Hill and the most consistently devastating tight end (maybe of all time) in Travis Kelce.

Winners make winning plays, and Mahomes has proved time and time again that he’s the best in the NFL on the big stage. The Chiefs finished the regular season with the best record, somehow improving upon its 2019 offense. Kansas City also greatly benefited from the hire of Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator. The Chiefs cracked the top 10 in points allowed this season and finished fifth in the NFL in interceptions.

It’s tough to pick against the G.O.A.T., but you can’t argue with Mahomes going 25-1 in his past 26 starts and Kansas City improving upon its Super Bowl-winning squad between last February and today. My bet is on the Chiefs winning this year, completing the three-peat next year, and becoming the next great dynasty of the NFL.

Super Bowl Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 56

This game opened at a whopping 57.5, one of the largest totals in Super Bowl history. It remains high at 56, where it settled on Jan. 27. We aren’t saying we think this game will be a field goal-kicking, low-scoring dogfight. But we just do not see both teams flirting with 30 points here.

The OVER has been getting pounded by the betting public, including an unfathomable 72 percent of sharp money. Why? Before the Buccaneers’ 31-26 win over Green Bay, six of their past nine games totaled 54 or fewer points. Before the Chiefs’ 38-24 win over Buffalo, the past six Kansas City games with Mahomes under center averaged 46.6 total points.

Viewers are used to seeing Mahomes air the ball out with magnificent ease, and the storyline being pumped is obviously old G.O.A.T. versus new G.O.A.T, but don’t get lost in the offensive hoopla. These defenses both ranked in the top 10 in points allowed this season. Only three of the 16 Super Bowls since 2005 have eclipsed 56 total points. Bet smart, and separate yourself from the crowd by going UNDER.

Super Bowl Player Props: Three favorite betting picks

Tom Brady UNDER 301.5 passing yards (-115)

Brady has thrown for over 301 passing yards just eight times in the Buccaneers’ 20 games this season, and he has just 479 combined passing yards over his past two games (239.5 per game). Oddsmakers likely set this prop high because of Brady’s 345 yards in Tampa’s first meeting with KC in late November. But the Chiefs D has vastly improved in the seven games since that contest, allowing an average of 235.8 passing yards per game in that span. The Chiefs allowed juw5 three 300-yard passing performances all season and have allowed 215 aerial yards per game in their two playoff games. I’d be leaning UNDER on any total above 297 passing yards in this prop. As a side note, I’m also very intrigued by Brady -160 to throw one interception.

Leonard Fournette OVER 3.5 Receptions (-125)

Since becoming the Bucs’ starting back in Week 15, Playoff Lenny has been targeted by Brady 27 times. He caught 76.6 percent of his targets during the regular season and has hauled in 82.4 percent of his targets in the playoffs. He logged four catches in wild card weekend against Washington, five catches in the divisional round against the Saints, and five catches in the NFC Championship against the Packers. Chris Jones and the Kansas City defense will be attacking the line of scrimmage early and often, which means plenty of dump-offs and screens by Brady in order to stay upright. The odds are in your favor if you bet on Fournette to bring in four catches.

Over 2.5 Total Players with a Pass Attempt (+130)

This one just seems fun to me. Sure, you could bet on Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown (both -162), or Chris Godwin to haul in over 5.5 catches (-110), but how much fun would it be to cash in on a wide receiver cocking back on a fake reverse or a running back bombing a Hail Mary after a pitch? There’s actually tremendous value in this prop, as a third player could attempt a pass on a fake punt, fake field goal, or even just a one-play sub if Brady or Mahomes gets dinged up and needs a few minutes before heading back onto the field.

I want to personally thank every one of my readers this NFL season. Writing these columns each week has been a personal highlight of my life, and I sincerely hope I have helped make you some cash throughout the season. I hope you enjoy what should be a fantastic Super Bowl and that you bring home a bunch of money! Stay healthy, stay safe, and stay up to date with all of us at BetQL!

For more betting analysis and information, head over to BetQL and check out our model’s best bets, sharp data, and much more for every game! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!

Source: Read Full Article