Toledo vs. Ball State odds, line, start time: Picks, predictions from model that called Texas’ upset

On Halloween night, the Toledo Rockets host the Ball State Cardinals at 7:30 p.m. ET. While the Rockets are coming off a dominating 51-24 victory over Western Michigan, the Cardinals have dropped their past two games, including last week’s 52-14 defeat at the hands of Ohio. Toledo opened as a 17-point favorite and now is laying 19. The Over-Under is set at 62 in the latest Toledo vs. Ball State odds. Before you make any Toledo vs. Ball State picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.

The model made some huge calls in Week 9, including Oklahoma State’s outright upset of No. 6 Texas. It also was all over Georgia (-6.5) covering against Florida, and recommended California (+12) against Washington, as well as Kentucky (+7) against Missouri. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated Ball State vs. Toledo 10,000 times. We can tell you it’s leaning over, but it’s also produced a strong against-the-spread pick that hits in 60 percent of simulations. This pick is available only at SportsLine.

The model knows that Toledo’s ground-and-pound scheme, which nets 204 rushing yards per game, makes it the top-scoring team in the conference at 40.8 points per contest. Quarterback Mitchell Guadagni, who has thrown 13 touchdowns against three interceptions, is also the team’s second-leading rusher with 428 yards. Running back Bryant Koback is tops on the squad with 434 rushing yards and seven scores.

Leading receiver Diontae Johnson (483 yards) picks up yardage in chunks, gaining 17.3 per grab, while wideout Cody Thompson has just 25 receptions for the year but nine have been in the end zone, including three against the Broncos last week. 

But just because Toledo can move the ball doesn’t mean it will cover on Wednesday.

Ball State will turn to backup quarterback Drew Plitt with redshirt junior Riley Neal out for Wednesday’s game with a torn meniscus. Plitt scored some valuable playing time last week in the loss to Ohio. He completed just over 50 percent of his attempts and threw just one interception. For the season, he’s completing over 62 percent of his passes and if he can release quickly, he should be able to produce big gains in the screen game.

Ball State is 2-2 against the spread this season versus FBS teams on the road, while Toledo is just 1-3 against the spread at home. Of the Cardinals’ six losses this season, three would have easily covered Wednesday’s spread.

Who wins Toledo vs. Ball State? And which side covers 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.

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