What to know for NFL Week 17: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats for every game
The Week 17 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 17 slate, including an NFC South showdown with big playoff implications, Kirk Cousins vs. Aaron Rodgers, the battle of Los Angeles and Geno Smith against his old team. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and the Bengals on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: TB -3 (40.5)
What to watch for: The Panthers won the first matchup 21-3, gashing the Bucs for 173 yards on the ground and have since won four out of their last six games while the Bucs continue to be up and down — notching a comeback win over the Cardinals last week, but completely falling apart in the second half two weeks ago against the Bengals. Bucs coach Todd Bowles believes they’re a more mentally-tough football team now, but which team will show up? Particularly which defense? It will all come down to how well Tampa Bay can stop the run. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: Panthers QB Sam Darnold will outplay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady, throwing three touchdown passes and running for one, to improve to 4-1 as Carolina’s starter. The win will put the run-heavy Panthers in position to win the NFC South with a victory next week against the Saints. Darnold will steal the show on an offense that rushed for a franchise-record 320 yards last week against Detroit. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Buccaneers are 0-7 this season when allowing 20 or more points and are 7-1 when holding opponents under 20 points.
What’s at stake: It’s win-and-in for the Buccaneers here. A victory gives them the NFC South title — and eliminates the Panthers from the playoffs. For Carolina to jump Tampa Bay and clinch a postseason berth, it would need to win its final two games or beat the Bucs and then get a Saints loss in Week 17 and a Bucs loss in Week 18. ESPN’s FPI gives the Panthers a 33.3% chance to win the division. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Panthers | Buccaneers
What to know for fantasy: Leonard Fournette is coming off of a 25.2-point performance (his best since Week 5), putting him in good form to face a defense that held him to a season-low 4.6 points in Week 7. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Darnold has started the past four games for Carolina, and the team is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 20, Panthers 16
Walder’s pick: Panthers 23, Buccaneers 16
FPI prediction: CAR, 50.1% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: ‘Truly an honor’ to be back with Panthers, says Norman, 35 … Panthers RBs make history, boost NFC South title hopes
Dolphins (8-7) at Patriots (7-8)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: NE -3 (41.5)
What to watch for: The winner of this game controls its playoff destiny heading into the final week of the season, so it doesn’t get much bigger than that. The Dolphins are looking to earn their second straight regular-season series sweep of the Patriots. Meanwhile, the Patriots are managing a run of injures at CB with three of their top four players out of practice and trending toward not playing, which is untimely. As starting CB Jonathan Jones noted, Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are putting up “historic numbers.” — Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: QB Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t won a start since December 12, 2021, and the Dolphins haven’t won a game since Week 12 — both of these droughts will end Sunday. Hill and Waddle once again will each record more than 100 receiving yards as Miami bullies a slumping Patriots team. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Dolphins are seeking to win back-to-back games at New England for the first time since 1999-2000 (won in 2021 Week 1 last season).
What’s at stake: Miami can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a loss/tie from the Jets, or a tie, a Jets loss and a Steelers loss/tie. ESPN’s FPI says the Dolphins currently have a 68% chance to make the playoffs, which would rise to 89% with a win or fall to 54% with a loss. The Patriots, meanwhile, have a 19% chance, which could jump to 32% with a win. But a loss knocks them out of the race. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Dolphins | Patriots
What to know for fantasy: An 84-yard touchdown last week against the Packers helped Waddle post his second consecutive 20-point game (he had two 20-point games during the first 14 weeks of this season). He didn’t quite get there in the season opener against these Patriots, but he did turn five targets into 17.7 fantasy points. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Bridgewater is 42-22 ATS in his career (.656), 24-8 ATS as an underdog (.750) and 19-4 ATS as a road underdog (.826). Miami is 7-6 ATS this season in games that Tua Tagovailoa starts and 0-2 ATS in games in which he doesn’t. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 27, Patriots 24
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 26, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: NE, 60.2% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Fins’ Tagovailoa day-to-day; Bridgewater in line to start … Dynamic Patriots rookie Marcus Jones in concussion protocol … Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa back in concussion protocol … Patriots QB Mac Jones explains low hit on Bengals’ Eli Apple
Bears (3-12) at Lions (7-8)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DET -6 (52)
What to watch for: The Lions will host their final home game of the regular season with a slim chance at making the postseason. It’s safe to say the Lions can’t afford to lose if they want a shot at making the playoffs. The last time these two teams met in November, the Lions pulled out a close 31-30 win on the road. Although the Bears are last in the NFC North, their strong rushing attack could pose problems for the Lions, who allowed 320 rushing yards during Saturday’s loss at Carolina. — Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: The Bears losing streak will stop at eight with a win in Detroit. The Panthers provided the blueprint on how to dismantle the Lions’ defense last week. With the league’s top rushing attack, Chicago will find its fourth win of the season behind a big day from Khalil Herbert in his second game back from injured reserve. Like Carolina, the Bears will have two 100-yard rushers, but it’ll be Herbert and quarterback Justin Fields (who topped 147 yards on the ground the last time these two teams played). — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears have 2,696 rushing yards this season — the most in the NFL and the seventh most rush yards in franchise history. The Lions have allowed 2,188 rush yards this season (tied for fourth-most in NFL, ninth-most in a season in franchise history).
What’s at stake: The Lions have a 17% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN’s FPI. That improves to 23% with a win over the Bears, but it also falls to 2% with a loss. The Bears — already eliminated — are more concerned with draft position. They have a 34.9% chance to land the top pick in April’s draft. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Bears | Lions
What to know for fantasy: Jared Goff has been a top-five fantasy quarterback in three of his past four games, form he hopes to continue against a Bears defense that held him to a QB20 finish in Week 10. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Detroit enters 4-0 ATS in its past four home games and 7-1 ATS in its past eight games, regardless of location. On the other hand, Chicago enters 0-3 ATS in its past three road games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Bears 24
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Bears 23
FPI prediction: DET, 69.7% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bears won’t shut down QB Fields for final two games … Veteran linebacker Davis signed from practice squad
Broncos (4-11) at Chiefs (12-3)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -12.5 (45)
What to watch for: Even though the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos 14 consecutive times, the games haven’t been as one-sided as the streak might indicate. The Chiefs have won three of their last four games against the Broncos by six points or less, including a 34-28 win in Denver in Week 14. What’s more, the Chiefs have mostly struggled to finish off lowly opponents like the Broncos. This is the Chiefs’ fifth game against an opponent that currently has four wins or less. Three of the first four were close at the end with the exception being a Week 1 win over the Cardinals. The Chiefs lost one of those games, against the Colts in Week 3. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Get the confetti cannons ready. The Broncos will get a play on special teams that is worth a highlight from rookie returner Montrell Washington. The Broncos have been at, or near, the bottom of every significant special teams metric all season, and coach Nathaniel Hackett, special teams coach Dwayne Stukes and offensive line coach Butch Barry were all fired on Monday. Interim coach Jerry Rosburg, a long-time special teams coach for John Harbaugh with the Ravens, has the unenviable task of facing the Chiefs, who are trying to win and become the AFC’s top playoff seed. The Broncos will need a football miracle to keep it close, but they will at least play offense the way they should — few more runs, lot more play action — and Rosburg will be willing to roll the dice on special teams with a potential surprise or two. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Patrick Mahomes is 10-0 in his career against the Broncos, one shy of matching the most wins without a loss vs. an opponent in the Super Bowl era.
What’s at stake: Well, the Chiefs locked up the AFC West and a playoff spot, while the Broncos are eliminated and don’t own a first-round pick in April. So not much on the line here. But Kansas City must win to ensure it still has a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed regardless of what Buffalo does on Monday. ESPN’s FPI gives the Chiefs a 47% chance to end up atop the conference. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Broncos | Chiefs
What to know for fantasy: Jerick McKinnon has caught a touchdown pass in four straight games (including a pair against these Broncos), but his touch count declined from 18 in Week 15 to eight last week against the Seahawks. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Kansas City is 0-4 ATS against AFC West opponents this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 34, Broncos 17
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 24, Broncos 13
FPI prediction: KC, 90.2% (by an average of 15.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Russell Wilson wishes he’d played better for Hackett … Broncos brass says QB is ‘fixable’
Colts (4-10-1) at Giants (8-6-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: NYG -6 (38.5)
What to watch for: The Giants are playing for their first postseason berth since 2016. All they need is a win. “It will be special,” running back Saquon Barkley said of the possibility. “We have a chance to do it.” It will be against a struggling Colts team that is headed in the opposite direction and has dropped five straight games. However, the Colts haven’t lost to the Giants since 2002. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: The Giants will allow a season-high six or more sacks. QB Daniel Jones has been sacked five or more times on three occasions this season. This weekend, he’ll face a Colts’ pass rush that has come alive, with 11 sacks in the past two games. The combination of DTs DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart and DE Yannick Ngakoue, along with the emergence of young linemen like Dayo Odeyingbo and Kwity Paye, has reinforced the defensive line as Indy’s strength. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Barkley is 46 yards shy of becoming the third Giants player with multiple 1,300-yard rushing seasons, joining Tiki Barber (four) and Joe Morris (two).
What’s at stake: The Giants have a lot of opportunities to seal up a playoff spot this week. Easiest way? Win. More complicated? New York can tie — or even lose — and still get in with six different scenarios involving losses from the Seahawks, Commanders, Lions and/or Packers. ESPN’s FPI has the Giants at 95% to make the playoffs. The Colts are eliminated but have a 71% chance to land a top-five draft pick. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Colts | Giants
What to know for fantasy: Michael Pittman Jr. has just one score after the season opener and has averaged under 10 yards per catch in each of his past four games. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: New York is 5-0 ATS coming off a loss this season. It joins Dallas as the only teams to cover following each of its losses this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Giants 27, Colts 17
Walder’s pick: Giants 20, Colts 10
FPI prediction: NYG, 78% (by an average of 9.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Matt Ryan’s season with the Colts fell apart … Giants sign LB Jarrad Davis, put OL Shane Lemieux on IR … Giants miss chance to clinch playoff berth, still control fate
Saints (6-9) at Eagles (13-2)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: PHI -6 (44)
What to watch for: The Eagles can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a win. With Jalen Hurts still recovering from a sprained right shoulder, quarterback Gardner Minshew could get the call for a second week in a row. The Saints need to win their final two games against Philly and Carolina, plus some help from other teams, to make it into the postseason. — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Saints QB Andy Dalton will be sacked at least three times. The Saints, who were shut out against the San Francisco 49ers top-ranked run defense, now face the best passing defense who leads the league with 61 sacks. The Saints might be down both their starting guards with Andrus Peat questionable, which could lead to issues in pass-protection against the Eagles. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: The Eagles have a franchise record of 31 rushing touchdowns this season. The only teams in NFL history with more in a season are the 1962 Packers (36), 1976 Steelers (33), 2006 Chargers (32) and 2003 Chiefs (32).
What’s at stake: The Eagles can clinch the NFC East and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win. They can also take the division with a Cowboys loss/tie, and they’d secure the top seed in the conference with a tie and Vikings loss/tie, or a Cowboys loss/tie, a Vikings loss and a 49ers loss/tie. The Saints, however, can be eliminated from the postseason if they lose here and either the Bucs and Commanders both win or the Bucs, Lions and Packers all win. New Orleans has just a 2% chance to slide into a playoff berth, per ESPN’s FPI. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Saints | Eagles
What to know for fantasy: Over the past four weeks, four receivers have racked up at least 85 fantasy points: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill and DeVonta Smith. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: New Orleans is 0-3 ATS in its past three meetings against teams with winning records. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 28, Saints 13
Walder’s pick: Eagles 28, Saints 21
FPI prediction: PHI, 81.4% (by an average of 10.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Lane Johnson putting off surgery … Philly’s No. 1 clinching scenario
Jaguars (7-8) at Texans (2-12-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: JAX -4.5 (43)
What to watch for: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence struggled in his first matchup against the Texans, throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns. The Jaguars only scored six points in that Week 5 loss. Since then Lawrence has 16 touchdowns passes, five rushing touchdowns and just three interceptions. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: Texans WR Brandin Cooks will record his first 100-yard receiving game against the Jaguars. Cooks has had success against the Jaguars, surpassing 100 yards receiving in four of his six games against them. He had just four catches for 20 yards in Week 5 at Jacksonville. Jaguars corners Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams have played well, but Jacksonville hasn’t been able to get consistent pressure on the QB (29 sacks, which ranks 28th). That will continue against the Texans and QB Davis Mills, which will free Cooks up for some big plays. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars have won three straight games and are seeking their first four-game win streak since 2017 (the last time they won the division and made the playoffs).
What’s at stake: Houston has a 55% chance to get the No. 1 pick in the draft (ESPN’s FPI) and can lock it up if it loses and the Bears win. And the Jaguars’ playoff hopes are on ice for a week. No matter the result here, Jacksonville must beat Tennessee in Week 18 to take the division and make the playoffs. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Jaguars | Texans
What to know for fantasy: Lawrence has finished five of his past six games as a top-10 quarterback, development that has capped the upside of Travis Etienne Jr. (under 15 fantasy points in each of those games). See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Jacksonville has lost seven straight games outright as a favorite, including all three this season, tied for the fourth-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Four of those losses came against Houston. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 28, Texans 19
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 23, Texans 20
FPI prediction: JAX, 67% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jaguars sacks co-leader Smoot out for season … Texans coach Lovie Smith focused on wins, not top 2023 pick … Texans’ Laremy Tunsil wants new deal to ‘reset’ tackle market
Browns (6-9) at Commanders (7-7-1)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: WSH -2.5 (40.5)
What to watch for: Washington will continue to run the ball against Cleveland. In the past eight weeks, the Commanders rank eighth in rushing yards per game. For the season, the Browns rank 25th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Commanders are still fighting for a playoff spot while the Browns have been eliminated from contention. — John Keim
Bold prediction: Washington DE Chase Young will record two sacks, giving him more in this game than the last two seasons combined. The 2020 No. 2 overall pick has battled injuries and made his 2022 debut last week. But he will flash glimpses again of the player he was as a rookie, when he was named the 2020 NFL Rookie of the Year. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: The Commanders haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 11 at the Texans. Washington is 4-1 this season when scoring more than 20 points (3-6-1 when scoring 20 or fewer); Commander’s 19.0 PPG is currently the worst of any team at .500 or better.
What’s at stake: Washington can punch a ticket to the playoffs with a win and losses from Detroit, Seattle and Green Bay. It has a 22% chance to make the playoffs (per ESPN’s FPI), which moves to 37% in the case of a win or plummets to 4% if it loses. Cleveland is already eliminated and does not have a first-round pick. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Browns | Commanders
What to know for fantasy: Amari Cooper had 6 catches, 10 targets and 13.2 fantasy points last week against the Saints. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Cleveland is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games following a loss. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 24, Commanders 20
Walder’s pick: Commanders 23, Browns 14
FPI prediction: WSH, 52.7% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns, Jack Conklin reach 4-year, $60M extension … Seeking ‘spark,’ Commanders give start to Wentz … Why the Commanders turned back to Wentz with playoffs at stake
Cardinals (4-11) at Falcons (5-10)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: ATL -3.5 (42)
What to watch for: After announcing his end-of-season retirement earlier this week, J.J. Watt will play in a building for the first time ever — Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The only other time Watt has played in Atlanta in his career was in the Georgia Dome in 2015 as a member of the Texans. He had four tackles, three tackles for loss and a sack of Matt Ryan in a 48-21 loss to Atlanta when he was with Houston. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Let the two-week Watt retirement tour commence. Watt will have three sacks, a batted pass, two quarterback hits and five tackles on Sunday. He’ll want to continue to show why he’s a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and continue to, as he said, put out good tape so his two-month-old son, Koa, can watch it when he gets older. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Desmond Ridder is 0-2 in his first two career starts. No Falcons quarterback has started their career 0-3 since Chris Miller from 1987-88.
What’s at stake: Both teams are out of the playoff hunt. Arizona is currently projected to pick No. 4 in the draft, while Atlanta is looking at the No. 7 pick (ESPN’s FPI). See playoff picture.
Injuries: Cardinals | Falcons
What to know for fantasy: Targets can indicate future production, but not always. Marquise Brown has racked up 30 targets in his four games since returning, but he’s managed just 156 receiving yards with zero scores over that stretch. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Since the start of last season, Atlanta is 4-0 ATS when playing in games off more than six days rest. That is the best ATS record in such games in that span. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 21, Falcons 18
Walder’s pick: Falcons 19, Cardinals 13
FPI prediction: ATL, 75.2% (by an average of 7.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cardinals’ Watt thankful for ‘unbelievable’ NFL career … Falcons hoping some things from 2022 can carry into future … Watt leaves rich legacy for his work on and off the field
Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8)
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NYJ -1.5 (42)
What to watch for: Geno Smith’s remarkable career turnaround takes center stage with the team that drafted him coming to Lumen Field. Smith has already beaten the Giants and Chargers during his Pro Bowl season and will go for another win over his other former team. It’s all but a must-win for the Seahawks, who have dropped five of their past six to fall one game out of the NFC wild-card standings. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: The Jets are 31st in rushing offense (312 yards) over the last four games; the Seahawks are 30th in rushing defense (641) over the same span. In this matchup, defense prevails. With a worn-down offensive line and out-of-gas running backs, the Jets will be held under 100 rushing yards for the fourth straight game — something that didn’t seem possible early in the year. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: Smith is 114 pass yards shy of 4,000 for the season, which would make him the second quarterback in Seahawks history to reach that mark (Russell Wilson).
What’s at stake: The Jets need to win out and get at least one loss from the Patriots to make the playoffs. ESPN’s FPI says there’s an 11% chance. The Seahawks are slightly better at 27%. But neither team can lock anything up on Sunday. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Jets | Seahawks
What to know for fantasy: With Tyler Lockett sidelined, Smith posted his worst weekly finish (QB17) in Week 16 since Week 6. The star receiver could return this week: Smith has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in each of Lockett’s past six fully healthy games. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Seattle is 0-4 ATS in its past four games following a loss. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 28, Jets 27
Walder’s pick: Jets 20, Seahawks 16
FPI prediction: SEA, 60.7% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Can White rally slumping New York Jets with his infectious style? … Smith’s resurgence with the Seahawks is ‘exactly as planned’ … Jets QB White OK’d for return, Wilson to the bench … Seahawks’ Lockett ‘looked great’ in walkthrough, may play Sunday
49ers (11-4) at Raiders (6-9)
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -10 (41.5)
What to watch for: The Derek Carr era has ended in Las Vegas, and it is now Jarrett Stidham season — at least for the final two games of the season. Carr had been the Raiders starting QB since his rookie season in 2014, so his benching and ensuing mutual decision for him to stay away from the team sent shockwaves through the locker room. “It’s a reaction where you’ve got to kind of take emotions out of it and just realize that the only thing that can be productive is to support Jarrett going forward and guys are excited about him being able to get an opportunity,” tight end Darren Waller said. “So, we’re rallying around him, letting him know we believe in him and just try to do what we can to prepare for San Francisco.” — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: In a matchup of the league’s leading rusher (Las Vegas back Josh Jacobs) against the NFL’s top run defense (49ers), it will be the Niners who come out on top. With Stidham starting at quarterback for the Raiders, the Niners can load up to slow down Jacobs. Jacobs has eight games of 90-plus rushing yards this season, but San Francisco, which is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, will hold him under 60 for the fourth time this year. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: This will be the the first game Carr didn’t start since Week 5 of 2017. It will snap his streak of 91 consecutive games as starting quarterback (the second-longest active streak behind Tom Brady with 108).
What’s at stake: The 49ers are NFC West champs but have less than 1% of a chance to jump to the conference’s top seed. ESPN’s FPI is projecting them to end in the No. 2 spot. The Raiders, meanwhile, will be eliminated from the playoffs if they lose or either the Dolphins or Jets win. They are currently projected to have the No. 8 pick in the draft. See playoff picture.
Injuries: 49ers | Raiders
What to know for fantasy: Not one, not two, but 59 receivers over the past three weeks have scored more fantasy points than Davante Adams. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in its past six games, as well as 6-0 ATS in its past six games as a favorite. It was its longest cover streak since 2011, when it covered in eight straight. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 35, Raiders 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 27, Raiders 17
FPI prediction: SF, 56.2% (by an average of 1.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Improving playoff seeding reason for 49ers to push forward despite clinching NFC West … Carr team fits: How 2023 NFL quarterback market is affected … Bosa dominates in 49ers’ win; ‘secured’ DPOY award … Raiders bench Carr: Answering questions on Vegas’ QB future … Source: Benched Carr to step away from Raiders
Vikings (12-3) at Packers (7-8)
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: GB -3.5 (48)
What to watch for: Justin Jefferson needs 209 yards over the last two games to set the NFL single-season receiving yardage record. He might not need both games, considering what he did against the Packers in Week 1 when he caught 11 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns. The Packers allowed a pair of 100-yard receivers last week at Miami (Waddle, 143 and Hill, 103). However, Jefferson has been held under 60 receiving yards in both career games at Lambeau Field (26 yards in 2020 and 58 yards last season). — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: The first half of this game won’t matter. During the Packers’ three-game winning streak, they have a minus-9 point differential in the first half but have outscored opponents 45-9 in the second half. And by now, we all know the story of the Vikings’ season. They’ve had eight fourth-quarter comebacks and played in 11 games decided by one score, winning all 11. Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field will be in doubt until the final minutes. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Vikings are 11-0 in one-score games this season, the most wins by a team in NFL history. Minnesota has only won by more than one score in Week 1 against the Packers (won 23-7).
What’s at stake: The Packers enter Week 17 with a 37% chance of making the playoffs per ESPN’s FPI. That moves to 61% with a win or drops to 5% with a loss. They can be eliminated on Sunday if they lose and either the Lions or Commanders win. Minnesota already won the NFC North, but has just a 1% chance to take the top seed in the conference. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Vikings | Packers
What to know for fantasy: Jefferson’s name is in the mix for the top overall pick in fantasy drafts next summer after posting four top-three finishes at the position over the past five weeks. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Green Bay is 3-0 ATS in its past three games. However, it is 1-4 ATS in its past five games as a home favorite. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 27, Packers 23
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Packers 20
FPI prediction: GB, 57.6% (by an average of 2.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ in-season trade for T.J. Hockenson could be one for the ages … ‘Prime Time’ Rasul Douglas keeps saving Packers with late-game INTs … Packers QB Aaron Rodgers happy playing ‘meaningful games’
Rams (5-10) at Chargers (9-6)
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -6.5 (41)
What to watch for: The L.A. coaches are plenty familiar with each other after Chargers coach Brandon Staley served in 2020 as Rams coach Sean McVay’s defensive coordinator. Although the teams are on entirely different trajectories this season — the Rams already have been eliminated from the playoffs while the Bolts have clinched their first postseason berth in four years — it still could be an intriguing matchup between the offensive-minded McVay and defensive-minded Staley. “He can shape-shift based on the players that he has,” Staley said. “I think that’s what he has done such a good job of throughout this whole time. Relative to what type of group he has, he has been able to change for it.” This will be the first time the L.A. teams face off in SoFi Stadium. — Lindsey Thiry
Bold prediction: The Rams score 30 or more points. Although the Chargers have allowed NFL-lows in points per game (11.3) and yards per game (225.3) since Week 14 and have held opponents to 17 points or fewer in three straight games, the Rams offense builds off a strong Week 16 performance against the Broncos. The previous two times the Rams have scored 50 points under McVay, they’ve scored at least 30 points in their next game, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Rams have had five straight games with multiple takeaways, the longest active streak in the NFL, and the Rams’ longest streak since 2020 (six straight).
What’s at stake: Not much on the line here outside of Los Angeles bragging rights. The Chargers clinched a playoff berth in Week 16, while the Rams have already been eliminated and don’t have a first-round draft pick. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Rams | Chargers
What to know for fantasy: Christian McCaffrey, Jerick McKinnon, Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley. That’s the entire list of running backs that have out-scored Cam Akers over the past four weeks. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Rams are 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 30, Rams 21
Walder’s pick: Chargers 28, Rams 19
FPI prediction: LAC, 75.3% (by an average of 7.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Will Baker Mayfield stick around to backup Stafford? … Inside the Chargers’ extravagant team dinners … Cam Akers now a ‘big part’ of offense
Steelers (7-8) at Ravens (10-5)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: BAL -2.5 (35)
What to watch for: The Ravens can capture their first AFC North title in three years by winning their final two games, but they can also deliver a major shot to their biggest division rival in the process. If the Dolphins lose at the Patriots on Sunday afternoon, the Ravens can eliminate the Steelers from the playoff race by beating them Sunday night. Baltimore can also seal the first losing season for Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. His 15 straight seasons without a losing record is the longest streak by a head coach to begin a career in NFL history. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: The Steelers hold the Ravens to fewer than 100 rushing yards. In their Week 14 meeting, the Ravens ran all over the Steelers, led by J.K. Dobbins’ 120 yards. Since then, the Steelers’ run defense mostly clamped down on prolific ground attacks. They held the Panthers to 21 rushing yards and the Raiders — including league-leading rusher Josh Jacobs — to just 58. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Ravens are seeking their first season sweep vs. the Steelers since 2019 and fourth instance eliminating the Steelers from the postseason (others: 2019, 2006, 1999).
What’s at stake: The Steelers have a 2% chance to make the playoffs, and they can be eliminated with a loss or Dolphins win. The Ravens clinched the playoffs and still have a 36% chance to overtake Cincinnati for the AFC South, per ESPN’s FPI. But to stay alive there, they need to win or have Cincinnati lose or tie on Monday. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Steelers | Ravens
What to know for fantasy: Not one, not two, but 21 tight ends have scored more fantasy points than Mark Andrews over the past three weeks. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Steelers 21, Ravens 17
Walder’s pick: Ravens 19, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: BAL, 61.4% (by an average of 3.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Steelers-Ravens matchup to Sunday Night Football … Ravens’ John Harbaugh tight-lipped on Lamar Jackson’s availability for Steelers
Bills (12-3) at Bengals (11-4)
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | Spread: BUF -1 (49.5)
What to watch for: It doesn’t get much bigger than this. Two of the AFC’s teams are squaring off on Week 17 on Monday Night Football. The Bills are looking to keep pace with Kansas City for the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed. With a win, Cincinnati will keep its hopes of being the top seed alive and also hold the three-way tiebreaker over the Bills and K.C. — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: The two quarterbacks and passing offenses in this matchup will get significant attention, but it is the team with more success on the ground that will determine the winner. The Bengals have rushed for less than 100 yards in each of the last two games, and the Bills’ defense has been up and down against the run. The Bills’ offense is coming off the team’s best rushing performance in the last six years (254 yards). Controlling the ball will be important in this game, and running the ball effectively would go a long way in taking the ball out of the opposing quarterback’s hands. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Josh Allen and Joe Burrow have combined for 78 passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns this season, tied for the most by opposing quarterbacks entering a matchup in NFL history.
What’s at stake: Both teams already secured playoff spots, but each has something more to play for in Week 17. First, Buffalo can clinch homefield advantage and the AFC’s lone first-round bye with a win and Chiefs loss. ESPN’s FPI is giving the Bills a 49% chance to be the top seed. Cincinnati, on the other hand, can clinch the AFC North division title with a win and a Ravens loss or tie, or a tie and Ravens loss. The Bengals enter Week 17 with a 64% chance to get it done before the end of the season. Oh, and Cincinnati is actually still alive for the No. 1 seed, too, as long as it wins here. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Bills | Bengals
What to know for fantasy: Stefon Diggs has not finished better than WR40 in three consecutive weeks and has totaled just 22 fantasy points over that stretch … not ideal for a player that has scored more than 22 points in seven individual games this season. See Week 17 rankings.
Betting nugget: Cincinnati is 12-1 ATS in its past 13 games and a league-best 12-3 ATS this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 31, Bengals 28
Walder’s pick: Bills 35, Bengals 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 54.7% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Can Bills build on best rushing performance in six years going into postseason? … Bengals LT Collins out for year … … Bengals winning but lack finishing touch … Why Bengals’ historic against the spread run deserves more attention
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