Time to deliver: The eight men under the most pressure this AFL finals series

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Australian football honours only one winner – the one with the premiership. One team is hailed as champs. The other 17 “also-rans” in the AFL become chumps.

An AFL coach can finish the year with a “winning season” and top-four finish, but he will not be lauded for these achievements in the same way his counterparts in international sport are feted.

Brisbane coach Chris Fagan and his Port Adelaide counterpart Ken Hinkley can stamp their coaching legacies this finals series.Credit: Getty

It becomes even harsher in the AFL if you have choked or repeatedly by stumbled on the big stage. This is why the two men putting their tactical minds up against each other at the Gabba on Saturday night – Brisbane’s Chris Fagan and Port Adelaide’s Ken Hinkley – are the two coaches under the most pressure this month.

And there will be players who also feel it become tight around their necks in a final series where you want to be known as “Mr September”. Your reputation is made for performing under pressure when the stakes are so high. Some will handle it; others will collapse under the weight of expectation. These are the men who must stare down the pressure of the finals and deliver this September.

Chris Fagan

The finals spotlight shines more brightly on Fagan than any other figure in September. It’s been 19 years since Brisbane last appeared in a grand final, and Fagan has no excuses than to guide his star-studded team back there in 2023.

Under Fagan, Brisbane has twice been eliminated from September in straight sets (2019, 2021) and lost a home preliminary final against Geelong in 2020.

Fagan’s overall finals record is underwhelming, with three wins and six losses.

Brisbane is undefeated at the Gabba this season, and Saturday’s elimination final against an undermanned Port Adelaide should not cause them any problems. With Brisbane’s favourite son and Geelong premiership coach Chris Scott in the background as someone who could eventually take over from Fagan, a grand final appearance is the only outcome keeping the wolves from the door.

Ken Hinkey

It’s been a remarkable year for Hinkley in his 11th season as coach of Port Adelaide, one he was sure would be his last at Alberton.

An unlikely top-four finish rightly saw him rewarded with a two-year contract extension until the end of 2025, which allows him to enter this finals series with added security.

Hinkley has coached three losing preliminary finals, two of which were decided by under a goal.

Of the nine eight coaches participating in the finals series, Hinkley’s coaching record of 60.6 per cent is second only to Collingwood’s Craig McRae (72.9 per cent), and he must parlay that into his first grand final appearance as a coach.

Compared to the other top-four sides, Hinkley has far more challenging personnel issues – such as underdone ruckman Scott Lycett, key defender Trent McKenzie, and the absence of first-choice key forward Charlie Dixon.

Still, those excuses won’t cut it with the ravenous Port Adelaide supporters starving for success.

Steven May

Following the Demon’s 2021 drought-breaking premiership, it was reported that May insulted teammate Jake Melksham regarding his non-selection in the grand final. Melksham had been in stunning form in 2023 but ruptured the ACL ligament in his knee in round 24 and will miss the Demons finals campaign. Whether the reports were true or not, it is a heartbreaking footy story that must be playing on a loop inside May’s mind.

Fiesty Brisbane Lions veteran Dayne Zorko needs to find his best form for his team in the finals.Credit: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Dayne Zorko

At 34, the former Brisbane captain is probably facing his last chance to win a premiership. Like his coach, Chris Fagan, Zorko’s finals record is three wins and six losses, and in last year’s preliminary final loss to Geelong, Zorko had just 11 disposals.

Zorko is prone to losing his composure in big games and has sometimes cost his team through ill discipline. Port Adelaide should target Zorko verbally and physically; if history is a guide, he could crack under the pressure of finals.

Collingwood will be looking for increased output from big men Daniel McStay and Darcy Cameron this September.Credit: Getty

Darcy Cameron

The Magpies put its faith in Cameron to lead the ruck division when they cut ties with lead ruckman Brodie Grundy, sending him to Melbourne at the end of last season.

At stages throughout Collingwood’s dominant home and away campaign, that looked like an inspired list-management decision. However, Cameron’s form has fallen away in the back half of the season, and there are serious questions about his ability to stand up on the big stage.

Cameron was once a noted goalkicker, but that strength has evaporated this season – he has just four majors for the year. He doesn’t win enough clearances (three per game) for a ruckman of his size and mobility, and his success in nullifying Melbourne captain Max Gawn in tonight’s first elimination final might decide the outcome of the game and, therefore, the premiership.

Dan McStay

Collingwood’s decision to recruit the former Brisbane forward on a bumper five-year contract as a free agent in 2022 was strange at the time, and unsurprisingly, it hasn’t worked out for McStay or Collingwood in his first season in black and white.

McStay has never been a noted goalkicker; his best return in any season is just 28 in 2021, and in his 12 games this season, he’s kicked only 16.

Those disappointing returns can pass without scrutiny when you play in a non-AFL state such as Brisbane, but not in finals when you’re wearing the guernsey of the competition’s largest club and on a mega, multi-million-dollar contract.

McStay must exceed his disappointing season averages of nine touches, four marks and one goal
per game this September to justify the Magpie’s investment.

Carlton’s Harry McKay, St Kilda’s Jack Steele and Melbourne’s Steven May need to deliver for their teams in this finals series.Credit: Getty

Jack Steele

The typically consistent St Kilda captain is one of the few players not to improve this season under new coach Ross Lyon.

Steele’s disposal count dropped from 27 in 2022 to 23 in 2023, and his contested possessions, clearances and score involvements were all significantly lower.

In Saturday’s do-or-die elimination final, Steele will match-up against inform GWS young gun Tom Greene, who led the league in disposals, and the Saint is under pressure to atone for a poor year by producing an inspiring captain’s performance to lead the Saints to an unlikely finals victory.

Harry McKay

When you are paid top-dollar, like McKay, who signed one of the richest playing contracts in Calton’s history until the end of 2030, you expect elite performance.

McKay has had a substandard season by any measure and must find a way to turn it on in September.

He was held goalless against Sydney in round 11. Still, with Swans first-choice defender Tom McCartin likely assigned to Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow, McKay should be able to expose his undersized match-up, Dayne Rampe.

McKay has kicked four goals only once this season, and it’s time his performance matched his pay cheque.

Across the next month – the most-decisive four weeks of a long season – these men will have their legacy in the game and at their clubs change forever. Who will deliver and falter under the rising pressure of finals?

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