Euro 2022: What can the data tell us ahead of the final round of group fixtures?

Spain face eight-time champions Germany at the Euro 2022 on Tuesday (Nigel French/PA)

Three of the four group winners are decided but there is still plenty to play for in the final round of Euro 2022 group fixtures.

Here, we look at what the data can tell us.

Group A

While hosts England meet near neighbours Northern Ireland in Southampton, the main focus will be on the group’s other game along the south coast in Brighton.

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Austria and Norway face a straight fight to qualify in second place in the group, with Norway needing a win, while a draw will be enough for Austria.

The world rankings and pre-season seedings make Norway the favourites, ranked 11th by FIFA and 10 places ahead of their opponents, but Martin Sjogren’s side will be nursing the wounds of their stunning 8-0 loss to England. Austria, meanwhile, have scored with only two of their 28 shots so far so will need to improve their conversion rate.

England will look to finish their victorious group campaign in style. While Sarina Wiegman may rest players with nothing riding on the result, Beth Mead leads the Golden Boot standings on four goals, while Ellen White is one away from Wayne Rooney’s record of 53 England goals.

Group B

The situation is similar in Group B, where the clash between Spain and Denmark will decide second place behind Germany – and England’s quarter-final opponents – and once more it is the Scandinavian side needing a win.

Spain’s opening 4-1 win over Finland gives them the goal difference advantage after Denmark lost 4-0 to Germany.

Spain goalkeeper Sandra Panos has been beaten by three of the four shots on target she has faced so far and was culpable for Germany’s opener after clearing the ball straight to forward Klara Buhl, offering encouragement as the Danes look to improve on their solitary goal from 26 attempts.

Germany take on Finland in a dead rubber which should allow Finland’s Tinja-Riikka Korpela to add to her tournament-leading 13 saves – one more than Northern Ireland’s Jackie Burns.

Group C

Wins on Wednesday put the Netherlands and Sweden in control of their own destiny, needing just draws against Switzerland and Sweden respectively to secure qualification.

Should the pair have matching results, having drawn with each other in their opening game, top spot will be decided by goal difference or goals scored, with the Dutch currently one ahead on the latter. It is the only group with top spot still to be decided.

Should either of the underdogs produce a win, they will move level on four points with their opponents and above them on head-to-head record – though if all four teams finish level on four points, the full range of tie-breakers will be in play.

Portugal, late replacements after Russia were exiled from the tournament, have acquitted themselves well so far and could pose problems for Sweden. The latter, though, have only given up 15 shots and no clear chances according to UEFA’s official statistics.

Group D

France wrapped up the group with a tighter-than-expected win over Belgium, meaning England will not meet Les Bleues unless both teams reach the final.

Coach Corinne Diacre will now have the opportunity to rest players such as Marie-Antoinette Katoto, who suffered a knock in that game, but if they put out a relatively-strong side then we could see an interesting clash of styles.

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France have been the second most accurate passers at the tournament after the hosts and have completed more than twice as many passes as their opponents (937 to 401). Iceland have the worst passing accuracy at the tournament at just 68 per cent.

The battle for second place is wide open, with Iceland one of three winless teams in the mix. Despite opening their campaign with a heavy 5-1 defeat, Italy look capable of finishing it with a win over Belgium – they rank fourth overall for shots taken, with 34, while their opponents’ tally of 13 is the third-fewest so far.

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