Man Utd pip Arsenal and Tottenham to top four in scientific prediction of table

Manchester United are destined to beat rivals Arsenal and Tottenham to the final Champions League qualification place once the Premier League season is resumed after the coronavirus suspension, according to the Euro Club Index (ECI).

The ECI is a ranking of the football teams in the highest division of all European countries, that shows their relative playing strengths at a given point in time, and the development of playing strengths in time.

Theoretically, their formula makes it possible to calculate the probabilities of different match results (win, draw, loss) for football matches in the near future.

United are unbeaten in their last 11 matches, recording impressive wins over Manchester City and Chelsea in that period.

But the Blues are three points ahead of Solskjaer's team, who lead Tottenham and Arsenal by four and five points respectively.

Taking City out of consideration, the three teams most likely to join Liverpool at Europe's top table next season are Leicester (94.81%), Chelsea (80.37%) and Manchester United (73.75%).

Wolves and Tottenham are the sides most likely to challenge this, but at just 17.34% and 16.24%, their respective chances of making the top four appear slim.

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However, there is a silver lining for Spurs, who are predicted to finish a point and place above north London rivals Arsenal.

The ECI reckon that Liverpool are certainties to win the Premier League and actually predict them to smash Manchester City's points record too.

If their model is correct, the Reds will end the season with a record 102 points, beating the century that City racked up in 2017-18.

Norwich and Aston Villa are likely to be returning to the Championship according to the model, with the Canaries having an 89.93% chance of relegation.

Only goal difference separates West Ham, Watford and Bournemouth near the bottom of the table, but the Cherries are apparently the side most in danger of the drop.

The Premier League is currently scheduled to restart at the end of April but is still subject to change depending on whether COVID-19 is under control by then.

  • Manchester United FC
  • Chelsea FC
  • Arsenal FC
  • Liverpool FC
  • Champions League
  • Premier League
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

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