Tipster who fired in 50-1 NAP has four secrets for big winners on Champions Day
Daily Star tipster Jason Heavey fired in a 50-1 nap at Kempton on Monday.
Clearpoint, ridden by Kieran Shoemark, made every yard of the running to win narrowly at the whopping price. Jason, the reigning Racing Post Naps Table champion, is currently leading the National Press Challenge of newspaper tipsters which continues until the end of the year.
Here he suggests four things to consider when trying to find a big price winner ahead of British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday (October 21).
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Back class
Look into a horse’s past form and look for evidence that he is better than he has been showing recently. In the case of Clearpoint, last season he was trained by Richard Fahey and won his first two races.
On the second occasion he bolted up at Newcastle on the all weather. He was then rated highly enough by his trainer to run in the Group Two Gimcrack Stakes at York.
His form tailed off and last month he was sold for £22,000 and switched to Charlie Fellowes yard. His first run on heavy ground on turf was disappointing but was probably a “sighter”.
His return to the all weather promised improvement – and he recaptured his form of last season in no uncertain terms.
Who are you backing on Champions Day? Let us know in the comments section.
Falling handicap mark
A very basic thing but compare current handicap marks with old ratings. At Kempton, Clearpoint was 9lb lower in the handicap than 12 months ago when he was running in Group and Listed races.
Spotting a well handicapped horse is not guaranteed to yield a winner as racehorses – especially when they become more exposed with age – tend to go on the downgrade. But it can be profitable if you strike it lucky.
All weather form v turf
Some horses are far better on the sand than on turf. And vice versa. Again this is not rocket science. I avoid tipping (or betting) anything that has no all weather form. Clearpoint’s best performance was on the all weather last year and he clearly prefers it to turf tracks.
Luck
So much can go wrong in an any horse race. Clearpoint’s tissue (opening) price was 25-1 which I thought was too big and worth an each-way bet. He then drifted like a barge just before the race and his SP was 50-1. That’s just lucky.
He even traded at 100 on Betfair. Shoemark was drawn widest and did remarkably well to get across and grab the lead. Without that manoeuvre, the horse would have been caught wide and would not have won. Small margins. So the performance can be marked up further because of that.
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