Broncos-Raiders scouting report: Matchups, odds, predictions
Raiders at Broncos
When: 2:25 p.m. MT, Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/KCNC-4
Broncos-Raiders series: The Broncos are 53-70-2 in 125 regular-season games dating back to 1960. Denver has lost six straight games to Las Vegas, with their last victory coming in 2019 when the Raiders were in Oakland.
Last season, Denver’s two games against Las Vegas came down to the wire. They lost to the Raiders, 32-23, on the road in Week 4 when running back Javonte Williams suffered a torn ACL. In Week 11, Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams scored a walk-off touchdown to defeat the Broncos, 22-16, in overtime.
In the Spotlight
Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is like Batman, and the Broncos are Joker’s henchmen. No matter how hard Denver has tried, it has been unsuccessful in stopping the veteran runner.
Jacobs, the league’s leading rusher in 2022, has totaled 721 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in seven career games against the Broncos. Last season, Jacobs ran all over Denver’s defense, literally. He couldn’t be stopped, as it took two, three and sometimes four defenders to bring him down.
In Week 4, Jacobs piled up 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including a 10-yard score where he broke multiple tackles before dragging a pair of defenders into the end zone. Seven weeks later, Jacobs rushed for 109 yards and made a 43-yard reception that set up a game-tying field goal in the fourth quarter.
“He does it all,” said cornerback Pat Surtain II, who played with Jacobs in Alabama in 2018.
So what will it take for the Broncos to slow down Jacobs, who also led the NFL in yards after contact (821) last season? Linebacker Alex Singleton smiled and answered, “Gang tackle.” Josey Jewell echoed similar statements, while defensive coordinator Vance Joseph believes the game will be decided on their ability to contain the running game. “You have to make a real effort to get (Jacobs) stopped, and that is where it starts in my opinion,” Joseph said.
It could be argued Denver has the advantage in Sunday’s season opener. The two-time Pro Bowler missed OTAs, mandatory minicamp and training camp because of a contract dispute — one that didn’t end until Aug. 26 when the team agreed to pay him up to $12 million this season. Singleton, on the other hand, thinks the time off is a gift rather than a curse.
“He’s going to be the most fresh,” Singleton said. “When someone doesn’t have to (go to) camp, it saves mileage on their legs.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
With Javonte Williams on a pitch count, Samaje Perine and rookie Jaleel McLaughlin are likely to see more opportunities. Payton has made clear that Denver will emphasize the run game this season, and he had a history of using multiple running backs during his time in New Orleans. Even if Williams is not back to his old self, his return to the backfield is a huge plus. Williams can contribute to the passing game but more importantly, he gives the defense someone else to worry about. The Raiders held Denver to under 100 rushing yards in both matchups last year. However, the Broncos should have better results with head coach Sean Payton’s play calling, a retooled offensive line and the return of Williams. Edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass
Wilson’s first season in the Mile High was ugly, but some of his best performances came against the Raiders. Wilson threw for 484 yards and two touchdowns while completing 73.2% of his passes in both losses. Payton knows how to bring out the best in his players. Expect him to incorporate bootleg and play-action plays to get Wilson out of the pocket and get the most from the veteran’s skillset.
Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy’s status for Sunday is uncertain due to a hamstring injury. He practiced for the first time in two weeks but in a limited capacity. If Jeudy doesn’t play, the Broncos could suit up as few as three receivers. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton had a strong camp and tight end Greg Dulcich is healthy after being plagued by hamstring issues as a rookie.
Las Vegas’ secondary is one of the weakest spots on its defense. The group allowed the fourth-most passing yards (242.9) in the league in 2022. The Raiders signed veteran Marcus Peters, who tore his ACL in 2021, but he was inconsistent during his final season with the Ravens, recording career lows in interceptions (one) and pass deflections (six) in 13 games played.
Denver’s protection for Wilson will be essential. Defensive end Maxx Crosby has been problematic, recording 36 tackles and 11 ½ sacks in eight games against the Broncos. Edge: Broncos
When Raiders run
The Broncos held up against the run last season, allowing the 10th-fewest yards in the league on the ground. But they are facing Josh Jacobs, who has tormented them. The Raiders outgained Denver 321-179 on the ground in 2022, largely thanks to Jacobs. Until Denver figures out a way to stop him, it’s going to be a long day. Edge: Raiders
When Raiders pass
Derek Carr is out, and Jimmy Garoppolo is in. The former Patriots and 49ers quarterback is not an upgrade over Carr, but he can still be effective when he is healthy. He threw for 2,437 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions in 11 games (10 starts) for San Francisco last season. Davante Adams, who surpassed 100 receiving yards in both games against Denver, will make plays no matter who is under center. Wide receiver Hunter Renfrow recorded 1,038 receiving yards in 2021 before injuries slowed him down last season, while new addition Jakobi Meyers had 800-plus yards in each of his past two seasons with the Patriots.
Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II is expected to match up against Adams most of the game. However, Joseph has more up his sleeve outside of having Surtain shadow Adams. Last season, Surtain held his own in the first matchup against Adams, recording three pass deflections. Adams had the upper hand the second time, catching four passes for 85 yards when matched up against Surtain, according to Pro Football Focus. Denver struggled to attack the quarterback, finishing 24th in sacks (36) and 26th in quarterback hits (81). The Broncos should have better results with the addition of Frank Clark and outside linebacker Randy Gregory healthy. Edge: Even
Special teams
The Broncos struggled on special teams in 2022. They finished last in kick return yards (420) and 28th in field goal percentage (77.8%). Denver waived Montrell Washington after a rough rookie season and handed return duties to Marvin Mims Jr., who totaled 108 kick return yards on three attempts at Oklahoma. As a punt returner, he recorded 391 yards on 33 attempts. Broncos kicker Wil Lutz, who was traded from the New Orleans Saints, had a down year in 2022, converting 74.2% of his field goal attempts. But Payton believes Lutz will have a better season since he is two years removed from a core muscle injury that caused him to miss 2021. Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson was named to his first Pro Bowl last year after making 91.9% of his field goal attempts. Edge: Raiders
Coaching
Payton might be a year removed from coaching, but he is still one of the best offensive minds in the league. The Saints ranked top 10 in the league in points for 12 of Payton’s 15 seasons in New Orleans. Last year, Joseph led a Cardinals defense that held Jacobs to 69 rushing yards and Adams to 12 receiving yards. McDaniels, a former Broncos head coach, had an unsuccessful first year in Las Vegas as the Raiders struggled to hold leads and close out games. Edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
| Broncos (rank) | Raiders (rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 325.1 (21st) | 352.5 (12th) |
| Rush offense | 113.8 (21st) | 121.1 (17th) |
| Pass offense | 211.3 (19th) | 231.4 (11th) |
| Points per game | 16.9 (32nd) | 23.2 (12th) |
| Run defense | 109.8 (10th) | 122.8 (19th) |
| Pass defense | 210.2 (12st) | 242.9 (29th) |
| Points allowed | 21.1 (14th) | 24.6 (26th) |
*Stats are from the 2022 season
By the numbers
103: How many rushing yards Jacobs has averaged against the Broncos during his career.
513: How many receiving yards Sutton needs to reach 4,000 for his career.
2,740: How many passing yards Wilson has in 11 career regular-season openers.
8: How many interceptions safety Justin Simmons needs to surpass former cornerback Champ Bailey for fourth-most career picks in Broncos history. Simmons currently has 27.
Bet on it
Line: Broncos -3.5
Denver is the favorite in Payton’s regular-season debut. Payton wants to show there’s a new era of Broncos football and beating a divisional rival is perfect way to do it. The Raiders are a mess even with players like Adams, Jacobs and Crosby. The Broncos have been a mess too, but it’s hard to bet against Payton.
Prop bet: Over/under 44
Bet the under. Sunday’s game won’t be the prettiest offensive matchup for both teams. Denver’s defense will hold its own, but the offense will have some growing pains at the start due to having a new coach and retooled offensive line.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 23, Raiders 21
The Sean Payton era starts off with a win and the vanquishing of a division losing streak. Payton’s hand-picked kicker, Wil Lutz, has a big say in the proceedings on an ugly-but-ultimately-enough offensive day.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 24, Raiders 20
Payton will show he means business with a win over Las Vegas. It will not be pretty but quarterback Russell Wilson will have a solid game, while the defense will force a turnover down the stretch to solidify the victory.
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 31, Raiders 17
Have we forgotten? After Denver dumped the mistake that was Nathaniel Hackett, the team played good football late last season. And it will play even better football — dare I say playoff-worthy football? — under the direction of Sean Payton.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 23, Raiders 20
Sean Payton may pooh-pooh this whole “rivalry” thing in front of the cameras, but privately? I ain’t buyin’ it. His Saints went 3-0 in their last three NFC South home openers and were 6-3 over their last nine. One AFC West streak down. One to go.
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