Can young Saints handle the heat? Stop Neale, stop the Lions? Burning questions for Saturday’s finals
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The stats show St Kilda and GWS will be duelling for game style ascendancy, while contested possessions will be key in Brisbane’s clash with Port Adelaide.
So how will the two games play out? We’ve asked and answered the burning questions ahead of Saturday’s two big finals.
St Kilda v GWS
Last time they met
Round 10: St Kilda 13.14 (92) d GWS 12.8 (80) at Giants Stadium
Will the Saints be green(e) with envy?
The Giants hope that’s the case. What more can be said about Toby Greene? From AFL bad boy to All-Australian captain, Greene is must-watch viewing and can turn a contest in the blink of an eye. That he has 60 goals this season highlights why pound for pound, he may be the best forward in the competition. All-Australian full-back Callum Wilkie is one option to tackle Greene, but the Saints know Jake Riccardi and Jesse Hogan are also major threats. Greene has also been spending more time at centre bounces. Meanwhile, teammate Tom Green is the No.1-ranked player in the competition for disposals and contested possessions per game, and ninth for score involvements. Saints skipper Jack Steele is likely to have the job of curbing Greene. Steele has been a warrior this season, battling a broken collarbone, but the stakes now could not be higher.
It’s not easy beating Greene: GWS skipper Toby is one of the best forwards in the competition.Credit: AFL Photos
Should the Giants fear playing at the MCG?
No. This is a team that has won at an equal-record 10 different venues this year, although the MCG is not one. Their only game at the home of football this season was in round nine, when the Magpies surged to a 65-point win. But these Giants are a far different proposition, having won nine of their past 11 games. However, of concern when assessing their credentials against the past 10 premiers, who were all top six for least points against, and least points against from turnovers, is that the Giants are 10th for the latter (82 points per game) and ninth for the latter (45.4).
Will Max be king for a day, and how will the young Saints handle the finals heat?
The Saints need Max King to be dominant if they are to win. He booted four when the teams last met, on a day the Saints had only five goalkickers. If goalkickers are at a premium again, he will need to contribute a bag. However, if there is an even spread, three from him could be enough, provided he remains a major marking presence, and brings his small forwards into the contest. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Marcus Windhager and Mitch Owens are preparing for their first final. In only their second season, they have become important pieces. The Saints need the three to have a steady afternoon.
Max King looms as a potential finals match-winner for the Saints.Credit: AFL Photos
How important is the ruck battle?
Very. Rowan Marshall may not have the poster-boy image of Max King, but he may well be the Saints’ most important player. Marshall was named in the All-Australian squad, and can influence games with his tap work and marking around the ground. However, unheralded Giant Kieren Briggs has had a strong back-end to the season.
Who wins the contested ball?
As the graphic below shows, that’s more than likely to be the Saints. Lyon’s imprint is all over this side, and it starts at the coalface. The Saints are ranked fifth for contested possessions, while the more free-flowing Giants are 10th, content to just break even with their opponents. On the flipside, the Saints are equal ninth for uncontested possession, but the Giants are third. So, this shapes as a battle of philosophies. If the Giants can have the ball on their terms, they win. If the Saints turn this into a slug fest, there’s a greater chance they win.
Tip: St Kilda by one point.
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Last time they met
Round one: Port Adelaide 18.18 (126) d Brisbane 11.6 (72) at Adelaide Oval
Can Port Adelaide disarm Brisbane’s weaponry up forward?
The mix of Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood as key talls, with Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner among the smalls zipping around at their feet, is enough to scare any side. But with Port Adelaide’s defensive profile leaving a bit to be desired, there’s a genuine question mark around whether the Power are capable of defending such an attacking outfit.
The Lions are the No.1 side when it comes to inside-50 differential, while the Power finished the home-and-away season ranked 13th for opposition scores per inside-50. If the Lions own territory, it will be hard to see Port Adelaide restricting the Lions to a low score. The Power must defend by limiting supply. Aliir Aliir’s ability to intercept can’t be understated, but by beating the Lions in the midfield, the Power will be able to play the ball in their front half of the ground and deny the Lions forward entries.
Joe Daniher has had a brilliant year for the Lions.Credit: AFL Photos
Is shutting down Lachie Neale the key to beating Brisbane?
The last time the Brisbane Lions lost, in round 20 to the Gold Coast, Touk Miller sacrificed his game to run with Lachie Neale. Miller kept Neale to just 17 touches, Miller had 29 disposals, and the Suns went on to win by 41 points. Two weeks earlier, Neale had just 19 disposals as the Demons chased down a 26-point deficit to run over Brisbane in the last quarter. They’re the only two games Neale didn’t have 20 or more touches, while in round one, when Port Adelaide thrashed the Lions, Neale had just 20 touches.
So, is that the key to beating the Lions? It certainly looks like it goes a long way, but Neale had some niggling issues in rounds 18-22 and appears to have overcome them since. He’s been tagged plenty of times before and plenty of teams have failed. But expect Willem Drew to get the job on Saturday night. Drew played a big role on Nick Daicos when the Power nearly beat the Pies.
What bearing will the contested possession count have?
When Port Adelaide flogged the Lions in round one, it was on the back of a 150-116 contested possession count. Remarkably, by season’s end, the Lions ranked fourth in the competition for contested possession differential and the Power ranked 16th. The Lions have not lost in 10 matches this season when they’ve won the contested possession differential. Jason Horne-Francis starred in the season opener with 10 contested possessions, supported by Ollie Wines (11), Drew and Xavier Duursma (nine each) and Sam Powell-Pepper (eight). Zak Butters has grown into a contested beast since then too. Guys such as Neale and Josh Dunkley will need to be supported in that area of the ground.
Can the Power win without Charlie Dixon?
Dixon was another key reason why the Power won in round one. He had six contested marks on that occasion and kicked 3.3, with Todd Marshall kicking four and Willie Rioli and Lachie Jones kicking three each as well. But Dixon has been ruled out of Saturday night’s game after failing to overcome a foot injury that has sidelined him since round 21. Marshall didn’t play in round 24 but looks certain to return to give Port Adelaide’s forward line a focal point. He kicked three goals in round 22 against GWS, and with Scott Lycett to return in the ruck, that should allow Jeremy Finlayson to spend more time forward as well. Finlayson and Marshall will need to shoulder that load without Dixon.
Will the Lions handle the pressure?
All signs point to the Brisbane Lions winning at home and progressing to a preliminary final at home again in a fortnight’s time. But this won’t be the first time the Lions have played in finals at the Gabba, and under Chris Fagan, they’ve failed to reach a grand final.
Two years ago, they lost a qualifying final to Melbourne in Adelaide, but then lost to the Bulldogs at the Gabba in a semi-final. They beat Richmond in 2020 in a qualifying final at the Gabba, but were bundled out in a preliminary final by the Cats. And in 2019, they lost in straight sets, losing to Richmond and GWS in successive weeks in Brisbane. This year has a different feel. Daniher is having his career best season, which has helped Hipwood flourish, the addition of Dunkley has strengthened the Lions’ midfield, and players such as Rayner, Keidean Coleman and Hugh McCluggage have matured into consistent performers.
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 23 points.
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