For the Broncos to win, they have to hit this magic number. It’s the only way to beat Penrith

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This promises to be one of the great grand finals. Penrith and Brisbane have been the two best teams all season and the old saying of styles make fights couldn’t be more true for these heavyweights, who play so differently.

There’s been a lot of talk about the hot conditions expected for grand final day, and the one thing I’ve noticed since the women’s soccer World Cup is how hard the surfaces are at Suncorp Stadium and Accor Stadium. The grass is shorter and there has been less dew on the ground at nightfall. All of this should suit the Broncos, who are lightning fast across the park and have that unstructured attacking play.

But big games are generally won in the middle of the park, and the clash between Penrith’s James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota and Isaah Yeo against Payne Haas, Tom Flegler and Pat Carrigan is an absolute beauty.

So, how do both teams win?

Offloads can win it for Brisbane

For Brisbane, the magical number is 20. I’m not talking points, but offloads. If they can reach that mark against Penrith and most of them stick, they’ll win.

The Panthers have been dominant again this season.Credit: Getty

Last week against the Warriors they had 23 offloads, and it eventually told on their opposition. When defenders have to get off the ground, chase and then make more tackles, it just takes a huge toll on the petrol tank in the latter stages of the game.

I just can’t see how they beat the Panthers with a structured style of play, so they have to chance their arm.

And as soon as the offload comes, they’ve got to get the ball in the hands of halves Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam or fullback Reece Walsh. There shouldn’t be any delay, just give it to your most creative players and let them do the rest.

The other key to Brisbane’s attack is not to worry too much about getting into the red zone, but prioritising what they do near the half-way line.

Broncos fullback Reece Walsh.Credit: Tertius Pickard

That area between the two 40-metre lines is when the Broncos are at their most dangerous. Walsh does most of his damage there. He’s so effective in this part of the field because the centres and wingers are hesitant to jam in like they do defending their own try-line. The winger might be waiting for a kick, and if Walsh can get his hands on the ball out the back of a block play, he can be lethal. No half is going to match his speed. It’s impossible.

That’s why the match-up between Walsh and Penrith’s halves Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai is vital. The Penrith players will be trying to employ “double D”, where they are shadowing the edge back-rower, like Jordan Riki or Kurt Capewell, who might run the lead line but then shifting off when it goes out the back to Walsh. But he’s so quick it’s almost impossible to defend two players within a split second. The Panthers will have to find a way to combat it.

Yet, it all comes down to Brisbane’s offloads for me. If they don’t stick, the Panthers will strangle the life out of them.

Defence, playmakers key for Penrith

How do the Panthers win? Well, simply do what they’ve done for years.

They know their DNA and what works for them. They’re the most ruthless, machine-like team we’ve probably ever seen and if they win a third straight title, we’ll be talking about their defence on Monday morning. They’ve conceded only eight points per game against top eight sides this year. It’s a phenomenal statistic.

I think it’s a toss of the coin between the starting middles, but I expect Penrith’s win to be built on the back of their wingers, Brian To’o and Sunia Turuva, who act like extra forwards. They have an advantage carrying the ball out of their own end compared to Selwyn Cobbo and Jesse Arthars. It’s so important in the modern game.

Nathan Cleary is at his very best at the moment, which is saying something. He has total control of his game and his team. Combine that with Jarome Luai, and it’s a formidable combination.

Penrith Panthers coach Ivan Cleary.Credit: Rhett Wyman

I couldn’t believe what I was seeing with Luai last week. Firstly, he blew me away the fact he even played against the Storm. Then secondly, how tough he was when he was out there. It only took one little moment of magic to realise why he’s so valuable to Penrith, and that was when he danced across the field and helped set Liam Martin free down the right. There are very few players who can create that chance from virtually nothing.

Without doubt their other key player is Yeo. By nature, he’s generally a very reserved or conservative guy. I think Queensland showed a way to slow him down in State of Origin this year, and I’m sure the Broncos will have noticed.

Rushing his support runners from the outside cuts down his ball-playing options, and when he doesn’t see space he’s not as inclined to take a risk as some of his teammates. I’d be watching for the Broncos’ outside men to be swarming, using the umbrella-type defence, when Yeo has got the ball, forcing him to run himself. It might break down Penrith’s rhythm.

To me, Ivan Cleary has been planning for this game for weeks. Stephen Crichton has moved to the left side and Izack Tago is now at right centre, and I think he’s done that to ensure he has the athletic Crichton on the same side Walsh prefers to attack. It’s genius when you think about it – and I wouldn’t be surprised if Crichton is angling for another grand final intercept.

My prediction

I’ve flip-flopped all week on who will win. After Saturday night, I was leaning to the Broncos. Now? I think Penrith’s defence might get them over the line and they can force enough errors from Brisbane. The cool head of Cleary will then be the difference.

But it should be a belter of a grand final.

Joey’s tip: Panthers by 6
First try-scorer: Brian To’o
Man of the match: Nathan Cleary

NRLW just keeps getting better

At the start of the year there was a lot of consternation about whether the NRLW expansion would affect the performances, but I’ve got to say I think the standard has improved again this year.

Knights prop Caitlan Johnston.Credit: Getty

The depth has certainly been tested with injuries and suspensions, and as long as we don’t expand too quickly again, the product should keep improving.

It blew me away to see almost 13,000 people at McDonald Jones Stadium for a standalone game last weekend when the Knights beat the Broncos. It was absolutely terrific.

I thought the loss of Millie Boyle would hurt the Knights this year, but they’ve been fantastic. We constantly talk about Jesse Southwell and Tamika Upton as their two superstars, but Caitlan Johnston has been their best player this season. She’s tough, plays big minutes and is always getting over the advantage line.

The big danger for the Knights is the ball-playing of Titans five-eighth Chantay Kiria-Ratu. It’s as silky as anyone in the game, and she just has so much time when in possession. It’s onwards and upwards for this competition.

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