Arsenal do NOT need a new striker! Mikel Arteta’s men are being outscored by their rivals… but stats prove £208m summer spending spree has changed the Gunners and a new forward is not the quick fix

• Arsenal have struggled for goals in the early stages of the 2023-24 season 
• Stats suggest that signing a new striker would not necessarily solve the issue
• Man City are vulnerable, but come the spring they will put on the afterburners. Leaders Arsenal must seize their moment now – Listen to It’s All Kicking Off

Having led the table for much of last season before being pipped at the post by Manchester City, Arsenal are back in pole position to end their title drought this term.

Mikel Arteta’s men are two points clear at the top of the standings, and have lost just once in the league all season.

But concerns have been raised about the Gunners’ front line. Arsenal have netted just 29 goals in their 14 games, putting them sixth in this category behind the likes of Newcastle (32) and Brighton (30), who are both outside the Champions League places.

There are doubts over whether Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah can fire them to title glory, and with the January transfer window less than a month away, Arsenal have been linked with bringing in a new forward to strengthen their attack for the run-in.  

But do they actually need a new striker?

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are not scoring as many goals this term as they did last season

Concerns have been raised over whether Gabriel Jesus (left) and Eddie Nketiah (right) can fire them to the title this season

Your browser does not support iframes.

The cold, hard numbers highlight that Arsenal are not scoring at the same rate as last season in the Premier League.

Arteta’s team scored 88 goals in 2022-23 – that’s 2.32 goals per game. That figure drops to 2.07 per game in 2023-24.

Yet there is a reason behind this. 

Arsenal spent £208m in the summer, and their primary focus was on improving the defensive side of their game.

In came club-record signing Declan Rice, Ajax defender Jurrien Timber and Brentford goalkeeper David Raya. 

Kai Havertz also arrived as a more attack-minded signing, but he has been used almost exclusively in a compact midfield alongside Rice and captain Martin Odegaard.

Arsenal’s title collapse last season was largely due to their inability to keep clean sheets in the final weeks of the campaign.

Arteta has looked to address this by making his side more difficult to break down. And it has worked.

Arsenal spent big on Declan Rice (right) and Kai Havertz (left) in the summer and are now more difficult to break down

This has made them less of a force going forward, though, with Jesus an Co not getting as many big chances in front of goal

The north London outfit have kept six clean sheets already this season, and have conceded the fewest goals (11) in the top flight after changing their style of play.

This has come at a cost, though. Arsenal are no longer as deadly going forward. But the blame should not be placed at the door of Jesus and Nketiah.

While Arsenal’s attacking numbers are down on last season, statistics highlight that their efficiency in the final third is very similar.

The Gunners only rank 10th in the league when it comes to big chances created (34), according to Stats Perform data. They were sixth in this metric last year.

But they place 13th when it comes to big chances missed (18), with Liverpool (28), Chelsea (27), Manchester City (24) and Manchester United (21) all missing more.

Their big chance conversion rate also stands at 47.06 per cent, which is only a touch below what is was in 2022-23 (49.49 per cent).

Meanwhile, Arsenal are outperforming their expected goals (xG) just like they did last season. In 2022-23 they ranked fifth with an xG of 73.19, but actually scored 88, while this year their xG is at 26.03, the seventh-best in the league, but they have netted 29 times.

Arsenal are still outperforming their xG, and missing fewer big chances than their rivals, suggesting their strikers are still playing their part in the team’s title bid

These numbers show that Jesus and Nketiah are doing pretty well with the service they are being given, and their effectiveness in front of goal has not dropped off since last season.

Of course, Arsenal fans can still hope for both men to find a new level over the coming months. 

Jesus has only scored one league goal all season, while Nketiah has five but three came in one game against bottom side Sheffield United.

Jesus has proven that he can score goals, though, having netted four times in as many games in the Champions League. If he can bring his European form to the domestic stage, this would only benefit Arsenal.

Nketiah has also stepped up in the past, and is a useful asset to bring off the bench in tight games.

Arsenal’s forwards are hardly feeding off scraps, but the club’s summer recruitment has clearly had a knock-on effect that has limited their goalscoring chances.

Arteta should resist the temptation to sign a new striker in January and trust his current crop of forwards

For now, it is working perfectly well, with Arsenal on course to win their first title in two decades.

At some stage, Arteta may need to tweak things to bring his strikers and the likes of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli into the game more rather than relying on 1-0 wins to see his side through to the finish line.

Finding that right balance between defence and attack could be the difference in the title race when the pressure cranks up in the new year.

But whether he sticks with his current tactics or decides to attack more moving forward, Arteta ought to trust his current crop of strikers to get the job done rather than potentially wasting money on another one in January. 

IT’S ALL KICKING OFF! 

It’s All Kicking Off is an exciting new podcast from Mail Sport that promises a different take on Premier League football.

It is available on MailOnline, Mail+, YouTube, Apple Music and Spotify.

Your browser does not support iframes.

 

 

34 big chances created – 10th (2.43 PG)            99 big chances created – 6th (2.61 PG)

18 big chances missed – 13th (1.29 PG)               50 big chances missed – 8th (1.32 PG) 

47.06% big chance conversion – 4th                   49.49% big chance conversion – 3rd

74 shots on target – 7th (5.29 PG)                         204 shots on target – 5th (5.37 PG)

26.03 xG – 7th                                                          73.19 xG – 5th

29 goals scored – 6th (2.07)                                           88 goals scored – 2nd (2.32 PG)

Source: Read Full Article